As most CB readers will know, the ‘new’ (as of 2008) conservation journal kid on the block that I co-edit, Conservation Letters, was ISI-listed this year. This allows us to examine our citation statistics and make some informed guesses about the journal’s Impact Factor that should be ascribed next year. Here are some stats:
- We published 31 articles in 5 issues in 2008, 37 articles in 6 issues in 2009, and so far 24 articles in 3 issues in 2010
- Most authors were from the USA (53), followed by Australia (28), UK (29), Canada (10), France (7) and South Africa (4)
- The published articles have received a total of 248 citations, with an average citation rate per article of 2.70
- The journal’s h-index = 8 (8 articles have been cited at least 8 times)
- The 31 articles published in 2008 have received thus far 180 citations (average of 5.81 citations per article)
- The top 10 most cited articles are (in descending order):
To project some sort of expected Impact Factor, we can look at a few ‘minimum’ scenarios. An Impact Factor is calculated as the number of citations accumulated in Year i+2 for articles published in Years i and i+1, divided by the number of citable articles published in Years i and i+1. So far there are 143 citations in 2010 for 68 articles published in 2008 & 2009, giving a ratio of 2.103.
Obviously more citations will occur in 2010, and there are questions about what actually constitutes a ‘citable work’, so the true Impact Factor will be > 2.103. If we use the citation rate in 2009 for 2008 articles, it works out to be around 2.7/article. This means we can expect a minimum total number of citations in 2010 for 2008 & 2009 articles of about 180 (it should be more than this), so the a minimum Impact Factor would be in the vicinity of 2.6 to 3.0. I therefore predict an inaugural Impact Factor > 3.0 for 2010 (due out in June 2011).
This is all pure speculation, mind, but it gives us a rough idea.